PLAYING "WHACK-A-MOLE IN AFGHANISTAN

"I'm not against all wars. I'm against dumb wars."
--- Candidate Obama

"We are going to lose the war in Afghanistan, and it will
bankrupt us." --- Chalmers Johnson

This is a dumb war, unwinnable, and hence the question
of whether it is necessary or not, is moot. You can't carry
water very far in a leaky bucket. Afghan. is an extremely
leaky bucket, and the journey will be long indeed. I will
attempt here to show some of the reasons why.

The Durand Line between Afghan. and Pakistan was es-
tablished by the Brits in 1893 by the foreign secretary at
the time, Lord Durand. It has never been accepted by the
natives there, the Pashtuns, who are not governed by
anyone, and live on both sides of the Durand Line, but
most of the 41 million Pashtuns live in Pakistan. About
12 or 13 million of them live in Afghan. and control their
section in the south of that country. They are legendary
warriors, and have successfully resisted any and all tries
to conquer them, going back to Alexander the Great, and
including Genghis Khan, the British (3 times), the Soviets,
and Pakistan, who has learned to leave them alone. That's
a lesson we will learn in time, but the question is when?
Tuition for that lesson is costly, as the Brits and Soviets
finally learned.

Most of the Taliban (practically 100%) are Pashtuns who
were trained and armed by Pakistan (with U. S. $) to fight
the Soviets. It cost us about $3 bn., and now we are conv-
inced that we have to fight them! The tragedy is that the
Soviets were doing nation building, the job we are trying to
do now under heavy attack from the Taliban that we armed.
Yes, what is not well known here is that the Soviets were
building schools, roads, health facilities and infrastructure in
a fairly peaceful setting until our CIA (under the Carter
admin.) started paying warlords to fight the Ruskies. The
CIA was able to unite the tribes in the north into the North-
ern Alliance. Those tribes had been enemies, historically,
and bitter enemies of the Pashtun. (They still are.) They
will not be beaten by the Taliban as long as we help them
by paying their armies for them.

The Taliban, of course, can keep fighting us as long as they
have refuges in Pak. with their fellow Pashtuns. Elements
of the Pak. intelligence service (ISI) that trained the Taliban
initially still maintain close ties with them. That is one rea-
son why the T. can't be defeated by us: the ISI doesn't
want them defeated. The Northern Alliance maintains
close ties with India, and the Pakistani army is much more
worried about India than it is Afghan. The U. S., by way
of its new aid bill for Pak. (Kerry-Lugar) is trying to curtail
or "guide" Pakistan army relations with the Taliban. Of
course the P. army is not having a bit of that, as they see it
as an attack on P. sovereignty. Google Pak. newspapers if
you're interested in the debate. The Pak. gov't wants the
moola ($7.5 bn.) but their army (the real power in the
country) says no, no, no.

Now understand: the Pak. army is fighting against the
Taliban in Pakistan, and suppressing it there, while their
ISI is helping the Afghan. Taliban, which is a whole different
outfit. Our CIA, likewise, does things our army would
oppose if they knew about it, but they don't.

The (mostly secret) cooperation between Pak.'s ISI and
and the Afghan. Taliban is one reason that Taliban can't
be defeated by us or anyone else. Pak. doesn't want them
defeated. Another is the forbidding terrain which they
use so effectively. Another is the family and tribal ties
with fellow Pashtuns, who may not want Taliban rule,
but also do not want them wiped out. Pashtuns are the
largest ethnic group in Afghan. by far, and have always
been the dominant force in a perennial struggle with other
groups such as the Tagiks, the largest ( 7 million) part of
the Northern Alliance. The enmity for centuries between
Pashtuns and Tagiks rivals that of the Sunnis and Shia in
Iraq. The Tagiks speak Farsi, not Pashtoon. Karzai, a
Pashtun, was opposed in the recent election by a Tajik.

(TO BE CONTINUED)