DEAD IN THE WATER

That's the Obama presidency. Whether you are
talking about Afghanistan, or the oil leak, or the
economy. As Bob Herbert observed today in a
NYT op. ed.: "Far more concern is being expressed
for the wildlife threatened by the oil gushing into
the Gulf of Mexico than for the G. I.s being blown
up in the wilds of Afghanistan." He went on to say:
"Ultimately the public is at fault for this catastro-
phe in Afghanistan, where more than 1,000 G. I.s
have now lost their lives."

We're at fault because we are allowing it to continue,
like a losing poker player who keeps raising his bets
and piling in his chips, hoping to bluff his opponent
into folding. The opponent knows we'll run out of
chips before he does: after all, he is holding the best
cards! He lives there and belongs there. We don't.
He is the right religion, we aren't (for that part of the
world.) He speaks the language and understands the
culture. We don't. It's true that the Taliban is hated
by many (if not most) Afghanis, but so are we. He
isn't wiping out wedding parties and funeral crowds
with mistaken drones, or breaking down doors of
people's homes in the middle of the night and dragging
young men out to be imprisoned at Bagram. We are.

President Karzai has read the writing on the wall. He
is quoted in today's NYT as saying he doubts that the
Taliban can be defeated. He should know. He's a
Pashtun, like most, if not all of the Taliban. His half-
bro Walid is a wealthy warlord in Kandihar, the heart
of Taliban country. Wally, who is on our CIA's payroll,
obviously thrives in close association, if not cahoots
with, the Taliban.

Our forces recently captured (and destroyed much of)
Marja, a Pashtun town in Taliban country. We then
brought in government administrators from Kabul
who are Tajiks, from northern Afg. They don't speak
Pashto. (There is no Afg. language.) The Pashtuns
and Tajiks have been enemies from time immemorial.
Tajiks and Uzbeks control the new Afghan. army we
are training, so it doesn't attract many Pashtuns, who
may enroll for the signing bonus and then go AWOL
and sell their rifle to the Taliban! The few who stay
complain of discrimination by the Tajiks. Whose
orders do you suppose the Pashtun soldiers will follow?

One of many major mistakes we made in Viet Nam
was underestimating the determination of that people
to resist at any cost domination by a foreign power,
whether us, the French, or the Chinese. We are re-
peating that mistake in Afgh. The Pashtuns are 40
million strong (more living in Pak. than Afgh.) and
have never been conquored by anyone (Including
Alex. the Gr., the Brits (twice), the Soviets, and
Karzai doesn't believe we have the will or the wit to do
the job either. I'm afraid he may be right. We aren't
making any progress. We may be dead in the water.

(By the way, I've dealt with the ethnic divisions in
Afgh. in earlier blogs. If you need more, I suggest that
you Google them.)

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net